Scottish Government report predicts £4,100 boost per person
By Neil Turner and Stephen Paul
THE Scottish Government will tomorrow release its long-awaited Growth Commission report.
One of the key findings of the commission will be the potential currency of an independent Scotland, with many expecting it to recommend adopting a separate currency.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said the commission, which was set up in 2016, will be, “frank about the challenges Scotland faces”.
Although it is expected to announce plans for a “Scottish pound”, it will likely be pegged to either sterling or the euro.
During the 2014 independence referendum, the SNP stated its desire to keep sterling with a preference for a formal shared currency with the rest of the UK.
However, this option was quickly ruled out by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.
The SNP still chose to go ahead with its plan of keeping the pound – presumably in an informal arrangement – with First Minister at-the-time Alex Salmond declaring: “It’s our pound and we’re keeping it”.
This was perceived as a key weakness in the campaign.
As well as monetary policy, the commission report, chaired by RBS economist and former MSP Andrew Wilson, will look at the range of transitional costs and benefits associated with independence, as well as ways of boosting Scotland’s economic growth.
Speaking in Glasgow ahead of a cabinet meeting, Ms Sturgeon said: “I expect it to be a very positive report, not sugar-coated.
“It will, I hope, be frank about the challenges we face as a country, but also very positive about how independence can equip us to meet the challenges and seize the opportunities of the future, and I think that will be quite refreshing in Scotland because the last couple of years have been very much focused on how we limit the damage of Brexit.
“Instead of a debate based on despair, this is an opportunity to turn our minds to a debate that’s all about hope, optimism and ambition for Scotland.”
The report, however, will not outline when a new referendum will take place as Ms Sturgeon plans to announce this when there is “clarity” around Brexit.
This week, sterling fell below $1.34 for the first time since December, weighed down by UK economic weakness, reduced expectations of interest-rate rises, and worries over Brexit.
A recent surge in the oil price, hitting $80 a barrel, has given cause for optimism for the Scottish economy.
Last month, the Office for National Statistics published figures revealing that the UK economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter.
The Scottish Conservatives said the report contained, “exactly the kind of nonsense that turned people off separation the first time round”.
Deputy leader Jackson Carlaw said: “The SNP can pluck out any number of fanciful examples, but it won’t change the fact Scotland is far more prosperous and secure as part of the UK.
“People are still asking the question why the SNP is putting so much effort into a question that was settled decisively just a few years ago.”
Titled “Scotland – the new case for optimism”, the 354-page report also examines a dozen other high-performing small economies as examples for an independent Scotland to emulate.
It is split into three parts, covering in addition to the question of currency: opportunities for growth, both now and in the event of an independent Scotland; and sustainable public spending.
If emulated successfully, the report says these “key lessons” learned from other small countries’ economies could boost Scotland’s output by approximately £4,100 per person.
The twelve countries analysed are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland.
Leader Richard Leonard said the Scottish public, “will rightly be wary of fantasy numbers plucked from thin air by the SNP and promised to every man, woman and child in the country in the event of Scotland leaving the UK.”
Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie said: “The whole plan involves the SNP piling up chaos upon chaos. They compound the chaos of Brexit with independence on top.”
Nicola Sturgeon added the SNP would be holding a series of national assemblies over the summer to discuss and debate the report’s findings in advance of the party’s annual conference next October.
