Pollsters predict ‘Both Votes SNP’ slogan not enough to return Holyrood majority

The SNP look set to fall short of a majority again in the next Scottish Parliament according to the latest polling, but is their campaign making best use of the electoral system?

The Savanta ComRes survey for The Scotsman suggests that Nicola Sturgeon’s party will return 63 seats – two below what is needed for an outright majority – and the same result as 2016.

That also suggests a slight drop in support for the SNP, compared to other recent polls, in both the constituency and the list vote.

Chris Hopkins, an associate director at the polling company, says the party could make better use of Scotland’s electoral system.

He said: “I think that it would be important for them to concentrate their resources on winning more constituency votes, rather than the “both votes SNP” slogan, that won’t reap the rewards that they’re looking for for this majority.

“Considering some of the races in the south of Scotland are very tight, I think it is important for them to try and squeeze the Labour vote in some of these seats.

“On the flip side of that, I think it’s important for the Conservatives to do exactly the same thing. I think they need to squeeze the pro-union Labour vote as much as they can to try and hold these seats that they currently have in south Scotland and try and ward off the challenge of the SNP.”

As part of the survey, 1,001 adults were interviewed who were aged 16 or over.

It shows a slight rise in support for Scotland to remain part of the UK, with 48% of adults surveyed saying they would vote ‘no’ in a second referendum.

45% said they would vote in favour of Scottish independence, with 8% saying they were undecided.

Mr Hopkins stressed the importance of not looking too much into these figures, highlighting the ability of campaigns to change opinion, both in the 2014 independence referendum and the EU referendum in 2016.

“As soon as there will be a campaign, things can change very quickly,” he said.

“In terms of opinion in Scotland though, things really are on a knife-edge when it comes to independence.”

It comes after a number of opinion polls in recent months have shown a majority in favour of independence, with one at the start of April, showing both sides had 45% and the remainder undecided.

Mr Hopkins said that rise in support for remaining in the UK could be down to a number of factors.

“The SNP haven’t had a particularly easy ride in the last few months particularly with the Salmond inquiry,” he said.

“Equally the performance of the UK government in Westminster has definitely picked up – especially in terms of the vaccine rollout.

“It’s perhaps not a shock for those that would be ‘soft-independents’ or those no voters, who switched over to yes, are now switching back to no again and that possibly would explain why we’ve seen a bit of a shift.”

He continued: “I think this all needs to be taken into the context of the SNP are still way out in front.

“This [poll] would still leave the SNP only two seats short of a majority and, considering that’s an electoral system that’s not designed to give majorities, it is still quite remarkable.

“Although I think the figures could disappoint the SNP, I think there still needs to be a slight tempering of expectations and really – they are far and away the most dominant political force in Scotland.”

Fraser Nicoll