SNP at crossroads as leadership race reaches climax
For the eight years of Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure, the SNP were the driving force in the Scottish political landscape, winning every single election. Many insiders pointed to the SNP’s unity, both within the parliamentary party and as an organisation, while other parties went through leadership changes and turbulence, Sturgeon captained the ship with strict party discipline with most disagreement taking place internally, up until the GRA controversy.
This makes the SNP leadership debate remarkable. From Kate Forbes attacking her own party’s record in government, to lines of disagreement drawn over the Bute House coalition agreement which creates a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.
This level of division – with candidates airing their dirty laundry in public – has not been since the days before Alex Salmond. However, this should not come as a surprise. There is perhaps no other political party in British politics that best suits the phrase “big tent party”.
The SNP has grown from a center-right party, described disparagingly as the “Tartan Torys”, to replacing Labour as the dominant progressive party in Scotland. This has created a membership demographic encompassing people from all backgrounds and political persuasions, from rural conservative farmers to inner-city leftists.
The promise of independence and Nicola Sturgeon’s skill as an effective communicator has kept this fragile coalition together, however with the departure of Nicola Sturgeon after her approval ratings slid the stagnation of independence is yet to see if any of the candidates will be able to unite the cause.
Another important point is the staggering increase in membership, after the 2014 referendum, which increased from 20,000 to over 100,000 in 2015, falling to 72,000 in 2023. This is the first team this influx of membership has had a say on the direction on the direction of the party.
With the departure of Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney, this changing of the guards has left a bit of a vacuum which is why we have seen Kate Forbes position herself as the “change candidate”. With Humza Yousaf positioning himself as the candidate who can best continue Nicola Sturgeon’s “progressive agenda”. Despite this, there is no natural successor to the outgoing First Minister, and this is reflected in Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf being neck-and-neck in most polls, with Ash Regan polling as rank outsider.
