Euro 2024: Scotland’s key targets to reach knockout football for first time in Germany

How Scotland will make the knockouts for the first time in their history.

It’s less than a month until Scotland take part in the Euro curtain raiser, as the Scots take on hosts Germany in the opening match, and there is a growing sense of optimism among the support that this team can be history makers. 

But the journey is fraught with danger, with the German Goliath, herculean Hungarians and Swiss stalwarts standing in the way of Steve Clarke’s men. 

Liam Mosson is an analyst for Everything Scotland – an account on X bringing news, features and analysis on the Scottish national team – and has set out the roadmap for a first knockout stage for the team.

Opponents’ Weaknesses 

The Germans have had a turbulent year – winning only three of their fixtures in 2023 and losing to the likes of Poland and Colombia. Since then their form has improved. However, new manager Julian Nagelsmann has overseen widespread change, causing teething problems in the squad. 

Liam said: “The big question with Germany is can they gel?

“Can they fit into a competitive environment? As the host nation they’ll have lots of pressure on them.

“They’re also a Germany side that as soon as anything goes wrong the fans will get on the back of that team.”

The second game throws up a tussle with serial knockout contestants Switzerland. 

Although this side have been one of the most consistent teams in the Euros, Liam thinks Switzerland are beginning stutter: “It’s a very fragile unit. 

“Since the qualification stage a lot of fans have been calling for the head of Yakin.

“They’re meant to be playing a structured defensive system, yet they’re conceding an onslaught of goals.

“I think people expect Switzerland with their tournament acumen to go and put in a strong performance. But there’s a lot of fragility in that backline – they’ve lost their vice-captain in Fabian Schar, who was crucial to that.”

This is exemplified by the number of goals the Swiss conceded in qualifying – leaking the most of any team to qualify in second place with 11. 

The last stop is Stuttgart with rigid opponents in Hungary.

The Hungarians have a defensive style of football which has earned them marquee wins against England and Germany. 

But Liam believes these high-profile scalps are a smokescreen: “when you look at Hungary’s fixtures against teams similar to them they’ve drawn 2-2 with Lithuania, 2-2 with Bulgaria, dropped points to Montenegro and Czech Republic. 

“So, I think Hungary are a bit like Scotland – They’re giant-killers but they actually struggle when they’re faced with the proposition of breaking a team down.”

This is evidenced by their qualifying campaign. Only Turkey and Albania scored less goals than Hungary whilst topping their group: “They have a very solid backline unit – they will defend deep, defend set pieces well, they’re a very physical side. 

“With Scotland we’re uniquely matched – with players like Lyndon Dykes to match that physicality. 

“But with Scotland it’s about can we break down a team that’s willing to sit ten men behind the ball– it’s something we don’t face very often.”

Liam also referenced that outside their starting 11, Hungary’s depth is made up of players who play In the Hungarian league – and believes this could be a weakness that the Scots could exploit: “If any of their key players get injured, they’re relying on players who ply their trade in the Hungarian league. 

“We’ve got players playing in the English Premiership, Championship, across the big five leagues in Europe.”

Hungary coach Rossi named ten players from the Hungarian league in his 26-man squad. 

Scotland’s Main strengths  

Scotland are no longer a one-man team, or a team full of average players, the squad is littered with talent from Europe’s top leagues – shown by the talented players left out of Steve Clarke’s provisional squad yesterday. 

But when faced with the conundrum of choosing one player to be fit for the tournament, there was only one man: “I’m going to say Lyndon Dykes. 

“With the way our squad plays we need an out-ball – we need someone who can hold the ball up and take pressure off. 

“Dykes doesn’t get a tonne of goals but what he brings to the team is an extra level of physicality and hold-up play that we have no one else capable of doing. 

“I think especially against Germany – we could finish that game on 20/25% possession.”

According to FBref, Dykes ranks among the top four percent of forwards for arial duels won, at 5.78 per 90, showing the Scot is among the best at winning headers in the business. 

Another key figure for Scotland is Celtic captain Callum McGregor. The midfielder is a calming Presence in the midfield, shown by being in the top 9% of players in the Champions League last season for times tackled during a take-on (FBref): “What he’s so good at is taking the ball under pressure and protecting his team. 

“You also can’t have attacking midfielders without having a holding midfielder that is technically good enough – Callum McGregor is good at doing both of those things.”

Perhaps there is one massive factor that has not been spoken mentioned, and that is the Tartan Army. 

Stephen McEleny is chair of the West of Scotland Tartan Army (WESTA) and thinks the country will be flooded with Scots for the groups: “with how easy it is to travel round Europe now and then add on top of that just how good this current Scotland team is, it really is no surprise that all roads lead to Germany. 

“This recent good form and feel-good factor has contributed to our membership growing by over 25%.

“We have members travelling to Germany by trains, planes and automobile with many who haven’t booked a ticket home.”

It remains to be seen whether Scotland have a fighting chance this time around, but there is no doubt that the public perception of the national team has shifted, and there is as big an opportunity there has ever been of knockout football for Scotland.